Anyone else noticed how terrible “Futurists” are at their job? I’m including everyone who attempts to predict what’s next. Economists who say there’s no interest rate rise likely in the next 3-years. Weather forecasters saying there’s no need to take an umbrella. TV shows like Beyond 2000 projecting we’re all going to own flying cars.
They’re wrong more often than right.
The same is true in business. In 1943, IBM president said, “I think there is a world market for maybe five computers.” The Y2K Bug was supposed to crash everything everywhere when we clicked into 2000. And in 2007 Microsoft CEO said, ““There’s no chance that the iPhone is going to get any significant market share. No chance.”
Yeah, nah.
For adland the single biggest “blown forecast” hasn’t really been discussed. No, it’s not the threat of ChatGPT. It’s not bots taking over customer service. And it’s not robotics doing everything from parcel delivery to making tea.
The single biggest lie we all swallowed was on media.
See, pre-internet, most media buying was pretty unsophisticated. If you wanted to talk to 6’ tall, left-handed mums in the western suburbs you would struggle to be discreet. Sure, you could find out what TV shows they watched or which magazines they read. But, inevitably, your ad ended up in front of short, right-handed men who also watched and/or read that media. So, there was a lot of wastage.
The current media landscape is very different. It’s brilliant for targeting. YouTube. Paid social. Display. Media buyers can find your audience no matter how niche it is. Wasted media budget is so 1990s.
Here’s the lie.
The money saved on media was supposed to make the work better. More targeted insights. More compelling images. The creative industry had an expectation that our production dollars would go up (or at least stay flat).
Yeah, nah.
Ask any director what’s happened to their budgets. Ask any photographer how often they get to shoot original photography. Ask any designer how often they’re stuck with stock stills or stock footage.
And it’s getting worse. I know one client who doesn’t just restrict their agency to royalty-free stock images but they insist they only use images they’ve already paid for. They have their own, searchable library. So the list of image options gets smaller and smaller and smaller.
So, what happened to the media dollars we saved?
It’s still buying eyeballs. But instead of selling “efficiency”, it seems those clever media people sold “frequency”. The same audience is bombarded with the same message multiple times. Makes you feel sorry for 6’ tall, left-handed mums in the western suburbs. Particularly when they’re seeing the same generic stock shot again, and again, and again.
So, is there anything we can do?
I fear the horse may have bolted. The chance of media agencies giving up the extra budget is pretty much zero. We can try. And, when we get better work to run and see better results, we need to shout it from the rooftops. We need our clients to realise that, in the words of David Ogilvy, “You can’t bore people into buying your product”.
Oh, and if you’re still worried about the future, don’t be. It’s a waste of energy. No matter how loud your favourite “Futurist” shouts, they’re probably wrong.
The mantra for this unsettling time should be “Worry less. React more”. Because, if you wait for what actually happens, at least you know it’s real.
Rob Morrison is a rarity in advertising – a grey-haired creative. Rob’s experience includes time as a Creative Director at Ogilvy, BWM (now Dentsu Creative), George Patts (now VMLY&R), Campaign Palace and Wunderman. He now runs his own consultancy – morrison.collective.
Here are two more opinion pieces from Rob Morrison:
Cover Image by wirestock on Freepik